[ORRando] PBP Google SIte for US Riders....

[Mark Thomas]

Here's an alternate scenario, which assumes that the percentage of eligible riders pre-registering is lower at each lower distance. My thought echoes your idea - that those riders seeking to maximize their chances to participate in PBP 2011 often pushed hard to get in a longer brevet in 2010.

1000+: 	326 (eligible) x 60% take rate = 196 spaces
600:	416 x 50% = 208
400:	238 x 40% = 95
300 :	271 x 33% = 90
200:	471 x 20% = 84

Under that scenario, there would still be > 40 spaces left after the preregistration process is complete. Of course we'll know more as we go through the preregistration tiers, but there is at least some modest cause for optimism that most riders wanting to go to PBP will have a shot at it.

Also recall that some spaces will inevitably free up as some pre-registered riders do not complete their registration for any number of reasons.

Mark


On Apr 6, 2011, at 6:48 PM, Joel Metz wrote:

oh, this will help me with the nail-biting :)

529 spots left... and if we stay at this rate of 58% of eligible riders
preregistering, i wont be going to pbp...

of course, its quite possible that those having ridden 1000k events or
longer are more likely to go on to pbp, so perhaps that percentile will go
down. i need it to be sub-40% overall :)

let the over-analyzing begin!

-joel


> A google site has been set up to monitor the PBP Registration/Prep
> Process....
> 
> It is here:
> 
> https://sites.google.com/site/pbp2011usa/registration-info/current-preregistration-info
> _______________________________________________
> ORRando mailing list
> ORRando at orrandonneurs.org
> http://orrandonneurs.org/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/orrando
> 


-- 
joel metz : magpie at blackbirdsf.org : http://www.blackbirdsf.org/
magpie messenger collective   :    http://magpiemessenger.com/
==
         i know what innocence looks like - and it wasn't there,
                               after she got that bicycle...


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